Monday, February 19, 2018

Congressional stalemate over guns and immigration, showing rural-urban divide, isn't going away soon

Gun laws and immigration reform are contentious issues in Congress, and they're not going away any time soon. "Both issues illuminate the central divide between the parties as their political coalitions have sorted and separated along lines of race, generation, education, and geography," Ron Brownstein writes for The Atlantic. "On both matters, Republicans are championing primarily non-urban and predominantly white constituencies that want fewer immigrants and more access to guns. Democrats reflect a mirror-image consensus: Their voters coming from diverse urban areas usually support more immigrants and fewer guns."

Despite the differences in party platforms, most Americans seem to have found common ground: a Pew Research Center poll from last summer found that 84 percent of adults support background checks for all gun purchases, and 68 percent said they support a ban on assault weapons. And depending on the poll, up to 85 percent of Americans say they support legal status for the so-called Dreamers, who were brought to the country illegally as children. Three-fifths of Americans in an ABC/Washington Post poll last fall said they opposed building a border wall with Mexico, but two-thirds said they would accept a legislative deal that coupled protection for Dreamers with increased border security spending.

The key to this disconnect between popular opinion and party action lies in the "intertwined cultural, demographic, and economic divide now separating urban and non-urban America—and how closely the nation’s partisan split follows the contours of that larger separation," Brownstein reports. Republicans represent what he calls "'a coalition of restoration' centered on the older, blue-collar, evangelical, and non-urban whites most uneasy about the tectonic cultural and economic forces reshaping American life. That means that compared with the nation overall, most Republicans are representing areas with more guns and fewer immigrants."

Democrats represent a nearly opposite constituency Brownstein calls a "'coalition of transformation': minorities, Millennials, and college-educated and secular white voters, especially women" with only one-fifth who say they own guns. Brownstein advises readers to get used to the feuding between the two parties, because the socio-political distance between them seems likely to grow only wider.

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